How the energy system is changing
The Netherlands aims to be climate-neutral in 2050. To achieve that, we are redesigning our energy system. What the energy system will look like in 2050 depends in part on how society develops and how and where energy is generated and used. It is also affected by global energy prices, geopolitical relationships between countries and the extent to which we as a country want to be self-sufficient. All of this has an impact on aspects like how much energy we import, how much we are willing and able to generate ourselves and which infrastructural modifications this requires in certain locations.
Electrification of society
The demand for energy is changing and demand for electricity in particular is increasing. At the moment, electricity accounts for about 18% of the total energy consumption in the Netherlands. This percentage will increase further in the run-up to 2050, to more than 50% based on current projections. After all, we are not only phasing out coal-fired and gas-fired power plants for electricity production, we are also moving away from transportable fuels and natural gas for heating applications. Those energy sources will also become more sustainable and will be largely electricity-based.
At the moment, electricity accounts for about 18% of total energy consumption. In the run-up to 2050, this percentage will increase to more than 50%.
A complicating factor is that sustainable electricity generation is highly weather-dependent. As a result, it is not always available. So this will require more European interconnection, more demand response and more storage. In the changing energy system, much more generating capacity is needed than currently available. It is needed to replace oil and gas, to generate energy during periods of high supply, and to fill storage facilities for use during periods of low supply. The periods when there is copious sun and wind can then be used to compensate for dark periods without wind. To meet all these requirements, decentralised electricity generation capacity will probably need to have increased by a factor of five in 2050 compared to today.
Developments are in full swing and they are far outpacing our physical network expansion capabilities. As a result, small companies and consumers are now also facing the same restrictions as large companies and increasingly having to wait longer for a connection or upgrade. This has a major impact on society, including the housing development challenge, efforts to improve sustainability in the Netherlands and the economy. This also puts pressure on efforts to accelerate development and improve sustainability in the Netherlands.
Change in everyone's behaviour
Because weather conditions will determine energy availability, prices will fluctuate much more during the day and between seasons. Customers will want to respond accordingly to keep their energy costs as low as possible, so they will sometimes consume a lot of energy and sometimes feed energy back into the network. Those supply and demand spikes will be even greater than they are today. We are unable to meet the demand for transmission capacity at an affordable price in all places. As previously stated: the system of 24/7 unlimited and fully guaranteed transmission capacity everywhere in the Netherlands is not sustainable.
A system change is needed to enable an affordable transition. This system change includes changes in the behaviour of all grid users, along with system choices and a change of market structure.
We will have to avoid disproportionately high transmission requirements by creating a sustainable energy system that focuses on maximum availability of electricity, heat and (sustainable) gas, even during periods of limited renewable generation.
The increased volatility of renewable generation requires more flexible behaviour on the part of both large and small consumers, to reduce costs and transmission requirements.
By applying targeted policies we can match supply and demand more closely. In doing so, we must examine which of the available energy solutions is the most effective, such as hydrogen for high-temperature heat (in industry) and district heating networks in the built environment where there is little room for heat pumps.
Better utilisation of the grid can be achieved through behavioural changes and by abandoning the expectation that energy will always be available 24/7.
Households consume as much power generated by on-roof solar as possible and utilise excess capacity for charging cars and replenishing heat buffers. In addition, households are more energy-conscious, especially at peak times, and invest in energy-saving measures (or make use of programmes funded by public authorities or market parties to implement those measures).
(New) business activity with a high energy demand positions itself strategically, for example, close to offshore wind power landfall sites.
Companies across the country invest in flexibility and conversion solutions (such as heat buffers and hydrogen) to maximise their ability to exploit periods when energy is abundant and cheap.
Companies also see it as their social duty to be energy-efficient and free up more capacity on the grid for others by being more flexible.
The electricity transmission grid is no longer the result of ‘bottom-up’ applications, but a designed system in which infrastructure expansion occurs only where there is sufficient social value. This takes place in line with social and spatial design choices, and is based on long-term projections.
